New Concepts on Market Research

Nuremberg, December 22, 2008

Here are the findings of the GFK consumer climate study for December 2008. The financial crisis has still not a big impact on the german consumer indices. But a rethinking is taking place concerning expenses. More and more people are aware of their situation and are afraid of  loosing there job. The GFK statement for the new year:
“The consumer climate is also likely to remain stable in the new year, but at a low level. In spite of the financial crisis and its impact on the economy, German consumer propensity to buy was again up slightly in December. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 2.1 points for January 2009 after a revised value of 2.1 points for December and consequently remains stable. However, both income and economic expectations declined.”
How the consumer climate will develop in the upcoming year depends hardly on how the job market will develop. This means how will be the degree of impact of the recession on the on the job market. There are still some stabilizing factors which will have an effect on the economy 2009: “good collective wage and salary agreements”, low rate of inflation…. To result, GFK forecast a rise of consumption of 0,5% for the year 2009.
Now, some further explanations to the propensity to buy, income expectations and economic expectations:

1) Propensity to buy

The propensity to buy remained stable at the end of the year. The household budget benefited from further drops in petrol and heating oil and putted the consumers into a better mood. This was reflected by the currently passed seasonal Christmas business, and confirmed by the positive news from retailer.

2) Income expectations

“Over the past four months, consumers have seemed comparatively optimistic despite the recession, however, this changed towards the end of the year and income expectations have dropped 8.5 points to their current level of just -15.4 points.”
The decline in the economy is affecting people. Many of them fear to loose their job, and consequently, are more pessimistic in their evaluation of their own financial position. Anxieties concerning loss of income are currently playing a more important role than factors which tend to increase purchasing power, such as lower petrol and heating oil prices.

3) Economic expectations

“Reduced production, a steep fall in new car registrations and declining exports will put pressure on economic development in the coming year.” As a result, the forecasts for 2009 are downgraded. Experts are assuming that the German economy will shrink, but do not know how much.

The GfK Group
The GfK Group is the No. 4 market research organization worldwide. Its activities cover the three business sectors of Custom Research, Retail and Technology and Media. The Group has 115 companies covering over 100 countries. Of around 10,000 employees (as of September 30, 2008), 80% are based outside Germany.